Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,247$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(559 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,209.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(2,209.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $106$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(20.5 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(104.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $30,988$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(9.74 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,316.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(30,316.4\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,934$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(450 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,898.5}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 37.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,898.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $354$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $235,561$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(5.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,320.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 42.5)}}\) (asimptote \(229,320.8\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,043$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(6.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,909.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(32,909.4\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,872$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,973,230$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(2.23 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,947,766.4}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 52.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,947,766.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $111,694$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,284.6}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 47.8)}}\) (asimptote \(109,284.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,336,681$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $290,581$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.38 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{287,028.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 52.5)}}\) (asimptote \(287,028.3\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $40,968$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(6.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39,003.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(39,003.0\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $248,356$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,924$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(3.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,688.7}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 68.8)}}\) (asimptote \(48,688.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,717$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(579 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,647.1}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(4,647.1\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $41,207$ on 2020-06-09
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $186,506$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(4.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,580.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 35.3)}}\) (asimptote \(177,580.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,736$ on 2020-06-09
Best fit exponential: \(1.81 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,454.3}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,454.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,641$ on 2020-06-09